Will I Do a Storm Chase Today?

Overall, this is not considered a huge threat day as measured by the Storm Prediction Center outlooks.

When storm chasing, finding a tornado is the jackpot of course. By that measure, a trip into the 10% area (shown above in yellow) makes sense and is not off the table.

However, storm chasing for me is also about time management and local terrain.

While it is possible to take a 4-5 hour trip to the maximum forecast area today, I will likely opt to take a chance on development along the dry line in northeast Oklahoma or southeast Kansas late this afternoon and evening.

The southern portion of the 10% area is also possible and my task today is to study local trends carefully.

This chart from the morning run of the HRRR (a high resolution weather forecast model) sums it up with some notes.