A complex thunderstorm pattern will develop today across the Ozarks.
Morning storms have already formed and a severe thunderstorm watch is in effect from Springfield northward.
This area should see the development of a bowing line of severe storms along a warm front which when then track east and eventually ESE over southern Missouri.
The air feeding into these storms will be unstable and the wind fields will be favorable for severe weather especially large hail and strong winds.
This morning, I’ll keep my eye on storms along the southern end of this developing line discrete development. They would be on the nose of much more unstable air moving up from the southwest.
The tornado threat will come in two forms: 1) bowing sections of the line where circulations are often observed and can produce tornadoes and 2) any individual storms (discrete supercells) which can manage to form.
The evolution of the line and its position will have an effect on development of storms later this afternoon. These storms pose an additional risk of severe storms and tornadoes. This will have to be watched carefully.
