The much advertised threat for severe thunderstorms just got a boost late this morning.
The Ozarks have been in slight risk area for a couple of days now. As of the late morning update, much of the Ozarks have been upgraded to the next highest threat level which is “enhanced” (level three of five).
Additionally, the tornado risk is higher (shown above). A new area of 10% risk (yellow) is now depicted from southwest Missouri down into Texas.
The percentage refers top the chance of a tornado within a 25 mile circle around any point (where you live). The hatching means a better chance for a significant tornado on the upper half of the EF-scale.
These storms will like start developing either over portions of southwest Missouri or just west into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma by 5-7 pm and move northeast during the evening hours.
The HRRR weather model forecast shows a sometimes helpful index, the Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) will look like at 6 pm. (shown below).
For those more weather inclined, I also put up a forecast sounding for a point in SE Kansas showing very unstable air and decent low level winds supportive of a tornado for any thunderstorms which develop.
