Dec 222017
 

Radar at 3:30 pm

A band of rain is sliding up into the Ozarks late this afternoon.

As temperatures begin to fall near the surface, the rain is expected to make a transition over to snow during the evening hours.

Accumulations will range between barely measurable to maybe as much as 2″. With a warm ground and temperatures above freezing, travel won’t be bad at first.

By later tonight as temperatures drop below freezing, roads make become slick in spots.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for most of the area tonight.

 

Dec 212017
 

Precipitation Type Saturday at 6 am (NAM model from COD)

A White Christmas in the Ozarks still on the table!

As I’ve been watching the computer models this week, a new possibility for snow has overshadowed the original possibility.

A shield of rain will be spread north out of Arkansas late Friday. Because of the arrival of some colder air and because this will occur at night and on early Saturday, snow is possible on the northern end of the rain.

Accumulations will probably stay under one inch although a few inches are possible in some locations.  With a warm ground, not much of this will stick or stick around for long.  But perhaps some will remain for Christmas Eve.

A small band of light snow will drift over Missouri on Sunday too. This has always been a glorified dusting and its position has moved anywhere from northern Missouri to northern Arkansas as each model run has come out this week.

So chances are there!  Statistically, it’s a long shot most of the time so I’ll personally hold on to any chance!

 

Dec 192017
 

GFS Model Precipitation Type Sunday Morning (Image from COD)

It’s a hot topic for something cold!

Over the weekend, I hinted at the possibility of snow on Christmas Eve in the Ozarks. The chance for snow remains!

The funny thing about longer range forecasting is one looks for the general ingredients first: cold air and a disturbance.  Both of these continue to show up for Sunday but the details are still fuzzy.

It looks like light snow, not a major winter storms which is really the best kind for all concerned in that it looks nice without causing a travel problem.

Also, generally speaking, the last week of December and early January become more active meaning more precipitation chances and enough cold air to make winter precipitation a possibility.

Dec 172017
 

Sunday Morning Radar

What’s that sound?  Yes, it’s raining!

Welcome rain visited the Ozarks overnight and continues early today.

As of 7 am Sunday morning, Springfield picked up about a half inch of rain.  Morning radar shows showers in the Springfield area with the majority of the rain now northeast of the city.  The rain will end in the Ozarks early today.

The week heading into Christmas will be a mild one. Expect high temperatures in the fifties and even sixties!

However, a slam of arctic air will arrive on Friday.  Much colder air will be in place next weekend with highs in the forties and even thirties.

This leads me to a White Christmas comment.  The first ingredient is of course it has to be cold enough to snow which appears likely.

The second condition is a trigger for precipitation. Almost as exciting as Santa coming (a certainty!),  there has been a consistent signal for snow in or close to the Ozarks on Sunday.

A White Christmas is usually defined as snow on the ground not necessary snow on Christmas Eve so this could be an exciting development.  It will keep me watching the charts this week.

GFS Model of Precipitation Type Noon on Christmas Eve

More updates of course this week!