May 182012

Sunday/Sunday Night Rain Pattern

It has been a fantastic weather pattern of May albeit a tad dry for some folks.  Another weekend is here and the weather will change just a bit.

After days of very low humidity and relatively light winds, both weather variables will go up a bit this weekend.

On Saturday, winds will begin to gust up out of the south.  Winds could gust up over 30 mph at times with average wind speeds between 15-20 mph during the afternoon.  Sunday’s winds should back off a bit.

Our dew points (a measure of humidity) have been very low, in the forties and fifties, over the past few days. Expect these values to rise over the weekend, reaching the lower sixties by Sunday.

The increase in wind and humidity is all out ahead of a cool front which will begin to affect our weather by Sunday.  Scattered showers and storms are expected with this feature on Sunday.  Showers will also be possible on Monday as the system slowly moves east.  It looks as if the driest areas of the Ozarks are the least likely to get any meaningful rain from this front.

Severe storms are not expected with this weather system but a few stronger storms may be around Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening.

The timing of the showers, or perhaps just the clouds from showers out west, could interfere with the viewing of a partial solar eclipse Sunday evening.  I’ll be talking about this more over the weekend.

A new area of high pressure will nose in beginning late Monday and lasting through mid-week. There is a small chance for a shower or thunderstorm along a returning warm front by the middle of the week.

Otherwise, the upper air pattern will send a small disturbance through the northern Plains late next week which doesn’t have much of a chance of bringing weather (rain) to the Ozarks.  There is a hint of the pattern shifting closer to us by perhaps the following Memorial Day weekend.