Weather or Not!

Nice Rain in the Forecast

A few widely scattered rain showers visited our area overnight. More organized rain is headed our way later today.

The Rain

Welcome rain will visit the Ozarks later today.  A bad of rain with a few rumbles of thunder will develop later today.

Before the rain returns, it will be a warm afternoon as readings rise well into the sixties.

This rain will begin affecting areas just west of Springfield by the 3-6 p.m. range and then spread/move eastward during the evening hours.  Rain fall amounts should fall in the .25″ – .75″ range with a higher potential in the stronger cells.

While a few embedded thundershowers are expected, severe weather is not.  The area of severe thunderstorm potential will likely stay at arms length perhaps as close as northwest Arkansas.

The rain may linger into the early morning hours of Sunday as well.

FROPA

Computer Temperature Trends

A FROntal PAssage is expected later on Sunday which will cause temperatures to start falling during Sunday afternoon.

Sunday evening will be much colder, not a great start for our first Daylight Saving evening!

The coldest day as a result of the cold front will be Monday with highs only in the lower forties.

Temperature Upswing

All of the rest of the week will be milder.  A return of fifties and sixties is likely through Friday. No rain chances are anticipated for the rest of the week.

7 A.M. Temperatures

February is over, a month which turned out to be the most winter-like of the season.

Stuck in Cold

The latest temperature pattern is one of the coldest of the season, reviled perhaps by the cold we experienced around Christmas.  It’s more than the cold, clouds have been very stubborn, the wind has been “present” and flurries continue to fly!

This will largely be the pattern again today.  The flurries aren’t amounting to anything and won’t today either.

Weekend Clearing

This weekend, the clouds and flurries will depart.  This will happen slowly on Saturday with Sunday being the more clear of the two weekend days.

Don’t expect any real change to Saturday’s temperature, we’ll still be stuck in the thirties.  But by Sunday, I’m predicting a return of forties, maybe near fifty!

Milder Days

The overall pattern shift a bit in two phases. The first mini-warm-up will be on Sunday/Monday.

A set-back in temperatures is expected on Tuesday.

Then the rest of the next week looks pretty mild with a few fifty degree days possible!

Sleet in Downtown Springfield on Thursday (Brad Thomas)

The winter storm is gone and now more days than not will be cooler than average over the next week.

Yesterday’s Storm

A mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain was laid across the Ozarks on Thursday.  Ice accumulations of .10-.25″ were reported in the area with the most concentrated ice in north central Arkansas and south-central Missouri. Much of southwest Missouri saw more sleet than ice although they were mixed together.  Thundershowers where eerie but also produced more sleet than freezing rain. A few of them also produced small hail. Wacky weather!

Over a foot of snow fell in central Missouri and snow accumulations of up to four inches occurred in Morgan County.

Calmer Conditions

The next few days will be quiet but cold.

Chilly days today and Saturday will lead to a brief, one day mild condition on Sunday before more cold air arrives next week. Saturday morning will probably be the coldest of the next three while Sunday afternoon will be the warmest. (see chart)

Rain/Snow Showers

Computer Model Temperature Trends

The next front Sunday night will spread a bit of light rain out ahead of it.  A few flurries could be flying on Monday in the wake of this system.

Next Week

Northwesterly flow will tap into colder air consistently next week.  There is a small ripple in the atmosphere passing just south of our area on Tuesday. It carries light snow potential with it but will be moisture starved and moving quickly.

Cold Air Pressing In

The well-advertised cold snap is upon us!  It will be cold for the next few days.

Chilly Days

In a month which has been fairly mild (graph), we have a few days of winter cold to contend with.  Daytime highs today and Saturday will only reach into the thirties. Saturday will be the coldest overall.  Saturday morning will be down close to twenty and the wind will produce chills close to the single digits at times.

Snow Flurry

Later tonight, some snow flurries will be whipping around the area as a small disturbance passes through.  Minor accumulations are possible, no travel problems expected except for perhaps a reduction in visibility in any “flurry bursts”!

Rapid Reversal

February Temperatures So Far

By Sunday, a wind shift to the south will mean a big boost in temperature.  Both Sunday and Monday will see highs reach the fifties.

Rain Showers

There are two chances for rain in the Ozarks over the next week.

The first arrives on Monday. This system will spread rain more to the east of Springfield and has lower rain totals overall.

The second system late Wednesday into Thursday is more dynamic and has a higher potential for meaningful rain.

Temperature Projection Noon Sunday

It will be hard to stay warm early today because of clouds and a good breeze. It will feel warmer by later today. In fact, temperatures will rise a bit in some areas during Saturday evening.

Low Pressure (not the nor’easter!)

The wind is blowing as low pressure deepens over the Great Plains.  This low will track through northern Kansas tomorrow and on up into the northern Plains.

We will see a band of rain develop in the Ozarks later tonight.  This system will produce it’s heaviest rain north and south of the area but I am still hoping for .50″ totals in some locations.  Most will see a lot less.

The rain tonight doesn’t mark a cold front! In fact, Sunday looks really mild with temperatures reaching into the sixties.  It will be windy on Sunday out of the southwest with gusts over 30 mph at times.

Work Week

We will have two surges of cooler air, one stronger than the other this week.

Tuesday will be a low point as highs barely clear into the forties and may get stuck in the thirties in a few places.

Then a stronger push of colder air will arrive by Friday and last into Saturday.

The rest of the days look mild. Thursday should be the warmest with fifties coming back.

Tuesday Snow

The chance won’t go away!  It still looks more likely in Arkansas but there still may yet be something measurable in a portion of the Ozarks!