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Weekend » Weather Or Not! | Weather or Not!
Mar 152013
 
Expected Rain Totals Over the Weekend

Expected Rain Totals Over the Weekend

Some locations in the Ozarks may see the thermometer touch near eighty. A front will change that this weekend.

(Note: I’ll continue to mirror weather posts here but the favored site in the future will be the Daily Weather Blog at Ozarks Weather)

Toasty?

For this time of year, upper seventies/lower eighties are about as warm as it gets. In fact, today’s record high is 79° recorded in 1983 and we’ll be close!

The pattern features a broad fetch of warm southwesterly winds. It will only be around for today so enjoy the warm! (hooky!)

Changeable Weekend Weather

A cool front will drape itself across northern Arkansas on Saturday. This will not only cool us down (not frigid just not near records!) but also set up a period or two of rain and showers.

This is good news of course despite the weekend timing as the drought is wearing away on its eastern edge which includes much of the Ozarks.

Rain totals over the weekend might just exceed one inch from Springfield on east with a bulls-eye over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

This type of east-west rain pattern is common (and welcome) along fronts lined up in the same way. A ‘wave” or low pressure area traveling along the front on Sunday will spike rain chances.

The first hints of rain will wait until late Saturday afternoon with several rounds of showers after that through early Monday morning.

As for temperatures, its hard to follow near eighty!  On Saturday, the front will cause a gradient of temperature with seventies still possible in northern Arkansas and only fifties up around Lake of the Ozarks.

Traveling Weather Systems

Next week, at least two addition precipitation chances should visit the Ozarks.  One on Wednesday and another, stronger system late week.

The temperatures will be coldest around Monday/Tuesday.

 

 

 

Mar 092013
 
Nice Rain in the Forecast

Nice Rain in the Forecast

A few widely scattered rain showers visited our area overnight. More organized rain is headed our way later today.

The Rain

Welcome rain will visit the Ozarks later today.  A bad of rain with a few rumbles of thunder will develop later today.

Before the rain returns, it will be a warm afternoon as readings rise well into the sixties.

This rain will begin affecting areas just west of Springfield by the 3-6 p.m. range and then spread/move eastward during the evening hours.  Rain fall amounts should fall in the .25″ – .75″ range with a higher potential in the stronger cells.

While a few embedded thundershowers are expected, severe weather is not.  The area of severe thunderstorm potential will likely stay at arms length perhaps as close as northwest Arkansas.

The rain may linger into the early morning hours of Sunday as well.

FROPA

Computer Temperature Trends

Computer Temperature Trends

A FROntal PAssage is expected later on Sunday which will cause temperatures to start falling during Sunday afternoon.

Sunday evening will be much colder, not a great start for our first Daylight Saving evening!

The coldest day as a result of the cold front will be Monday with highs only in the lower forties.

Temperature Upswing

All of the rest of the week will be milder.  A return of fifties and sixties is likely through Friday. No rain chances are anticipated for the rest of the week.

 

 

Mar 082013
 

What Radar Might Look Like Saturday Morning

Thursday’s high in Springfield was 60°, I think we can step this up again today and on Saturday.

Warmer Treat

This return to warmer weather is nice.  Many folks might remember last March (2012) when Springfield recorded four eighty-degree days and 15 seventy-degree days and ended up being the warmest March on record!

I don’t see that extreme warmth this March but it will reach into the sixties both today and Saturday. Late next week looks about as warm too.

I’m throwing down grass seed on new top top soil today.  Always watch what a weatherperson does!

Shower Chances

Portions of the Ozarks will see some rain showers overnight tonight as humidity rides up from the south and a small disturbance brushes by. This rain would be most likely in western and central Missouri during the overnight hours and very early Saturday.

After dry hours during the day on Saturday, another band of rain will roll through the Ozarks later on Saturday during the evening hours. I’m forecasting rain amounts ranging from .25-.75″ from this latest system.

Daylight Shift

spring_7884cSpeaking of later on Saturday, “spring forward” is coming up.  Clocks need to be set one hour ahead before going to bed Saturday night.

Chilly Start to the Workweek

It’s school Spring break next week for Springfield schools (SPS) and Missouri State and it will start chilly.  I’m thinking only forties will be possible on Monday.

Thereafter,  another warming trend looks in the works.  A weak cool front might drop by mid-week and from this distance it looks to be a non-player with regard to temperature impact.  I think we can get some sixties back by late week.

 

 

 

Mar 012013
 

7 A.M. Temperatures

February is over, a month which turned out to be the most winter-like of the season.

Stuck in Cold

The latest temperature pattern is one of the coldest of the season, reviled perhaps by the cold we experienced around Christmas.  It’s more than the cold, clouds have been very stubborn, the wind has been “present” and flurries continue to fly!

This will largely be the pattern again today.  The flurries aren’t amounting to anything and won’t today either.

Weekend Clearing

This weekend, the clouds and flurries will depart.  This will happen slowly on Saturday with Sunday being the more clear of the two weekend days.

Don’t expect any real change to Saturday’s temperature, we’ll still be stuck in the thirties.  But by Sunday, I’m predicting a return of forties, maybe near fifty!

Milder Days

The overall pattern shift a bit in two phases. The first mini-warm-up will be on Sunday/Monday.

A set-back in temperatures is expected on Tuesday.

Then the rest of the next week looks pretty mild with a few fifty degree days possible!

Feb 232013
 

Winter Storm Watch Area for Monday

The weather system I mentioned as a rain/snow maker yesterday has perked up and appears to be on a more southern track for Monday.

Snow Maker

Monday’s system is now a potential winter storm. The enclosed map of the winter storm watch shows much of eastern/central Kansas and northern Oklahoma in the outlook area for snow.

What this means for the Ozarks is a possible snow accumulation now for some areas on Monday night/Tuesday morning!

The enclosed map shows one scenario for late Monday with the position of the low and snow areas (in blue).

This will start out as rain in the Ozarks on Monday afternoon.

Computer Model Forecast for 3 a.m. Tuesday Morning

Something to monitor now for sure!

This Weekend

It’s a fairly chilly morning over the Ozarks with widespread teens reported at 7 a.m.

Saturday will be on the chilly side for the season as the high temperatures stays in the thirties.

Sunday however will be closer to seasonal norms as the thermometer peaks up into the lower fifties.

Colder Week

The final week of February and the very beginning of March will be averaging much colder in our area. Get ready for many high temperatures only in the thirties!

Feb 222013
 

Sleet in Downtown Springfield on Thursday (Brad Thomas)

The winter storm is gone and now more days than not will be cooler than average over the next week.

Yesterday’s Storm

A mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain was laid across the Ozarks on Thursday.  Ice accumulations of .10-.25″ were reported in the area with the most concentrated ice in north central Arkansas and south-central Missouri. Much of southwest Missouri saw more sleet than ice although they were mixed together.  Thundershowers where eerie but also produced more sleet than freezing rain. A few of them also produced small hail. Wacky weather!

Over a foot of snow fell in central Missouri and snow accumulations of up to four inches occurred in Morgan County.

Calmer Conditions

The next few days will be quiet but cold.

Chilly days today and Saturday will lead to a brief, one day mild condition on Sunday before more cold air arrives next week. Saturday morning will probably be the coldest of the next three while Sunday afternoon will be the warmest. (see chart)

Rain/Snow Showers

Computer Model Temperature Trends

The next front Sunday night will spread a bit of light rain out ahead of it.  A few flurries could be flying on Monday in the wake of this system.

Next Week

Northwesterly flow will tap into colder air consistently next week.  There is a small ripple in the atmosphere passing just south of our area on Tuesday. It carries light snow potential with it but will be moisture starved and moving quickly.

 

Feb 162013
 

Snow and Sunrise Near Ava (Debbie Wray)

This weekend starts with about a half inch of snow on the road outside of my house and will end very mild for the season!

Snow Dusting

The chance for snow a mentioned a few days also materialized over a portion of the Ozarks this morning.  The National Weather Service measured about a half inch has this snow area whipped through, I have about the same at my house in southeast Springfield.  This area is quickly moving through southern Missouri and northern Arkansas and will be gone in the next few hours.

The snow is sticking to roads so leave some extra time.  It’s also cold out there with temperatures in the lower twenties.

Link to MoDOT road condition map.

Cold to Mild

While Saturday will be cold with highs barely reaching above freezing, Sunday will see a reversal.

It looks like highs will climb back into the fifties on both Sunday and Monday.

Rain Chances

There are two coming up, one looks a lot better than the other!

The first and lessor chance for meaningful rain swings in Monday. This is one of those systems which will kick in with rain after it has mostly passed to the east of our area.

Between this rain and the next (Tuesday/Wednesday) the pattern looks quiet and seasonal.

Better Rain Shot?

It’s looking like the Wednesday night through Thursday might be shaping up to be a nice rain for the Ozarks. Perhaps .50″-1.00″?

Feb 152013
 

Cold Air Pressing In

The well-advertised cold snap is upon us!  It will be cold for the next few days.

Chilly Days

In a month which has been fairly mild (graph), we have a few days of winter cold to contend with.  Daytime highs today and Saturday will only reach into the thirties. Saturday will be the coldest overall.  Saturday morning will be down close to twenty and the wind will produce chills close to the single digits at times.

Snow Flurry

Later tonight, some snow flurries will be whipping around the area as a small disturbance passes through.  Minor accumulations are possible, no travel problems expected except for perhaps a reduction in visibility in any “flurry bursts”!

Rapid Reversal

February Temperatures So Far

By Sunday, a wind shift to the south will mean a big boost in temperature.  Both Sunday and Monday will see highs reach the fifties.

Rain Showers

There are two chances for rain in the Ozarks over the next week.

The first arrives on Monday. This system will spread rain more to the east of Springfield and has lower rain totals overall.

The second system late Wednesday into Thursday is more dynamic and has a higher potential for meaningful rain.

Feb 142013
 

Computer Temperature Trends

Today will be quite nice but a colder blast of air will change things for Friday and Saturday!

We’ll be treated to another mild day in the Ozarks today.  Daytime temperatures should have no trouble reaching into the fifties. This is despite the fact that winds will have shifted to the northwest.

Cold Snap

A second strong front will slice through here for Friday.  This will bring the real cold air to the Ozarks.  It will be chilly on both Friday and Saturday as highs stay in the thirties.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see some flurries flying around overnight Friday and early Saturday.  No accumulations expected.

Also, early risers will experiences wind chills around 10 degrees during the very early morning hours on Saturday!

Wind Shift

The wind on Sunday is forecast to make an shift back to the south, making Sunday warmer than Saturday. It might be enough to get fifties back again for both Sunday and Monday.

Rain Systems

The first of two rain makers will get here on Monday.  This one looks o.k for the eastern Ozarks with perhaps some half inch totals. It may not produce a thing in western Missouri or Arkansas. There is just a hint of some parting snow say north and northeast of Springfield late Monday night. Again, like all of the snows this year, it’s not looking like much.

Another rain systems appears late Wednesday and Thursday. This system seems more vigorous with a deep low forecast to develop over the Great Plains.  This isn’t always a slam dunk for decent rainfall in the Ozarks but I am hopeful!

Feb 092013
 

Temperature Projection Noon Sunday

It will be hard to stay warm early today because of clouds and a good breeze. It will feel warmer by later today. In fact, temperatures will rise a bit in some areas during Saturday evening.

Low Pressure (not the nor’easter!)

The wind is blowing as low pressure deepens over the Great Plains.  This low will track through northern Kansas tomorrow and on up into the northern Plains.

We will see a band of rain develop in the Ozarks later tonight.  This system will produce it’s heaviest rain north and south of the area but I am still hoping for .50″ totals in some locations.  Most will see a lot less.

The rain tonight doesn’t mark a cold front! In fact, Sunday looks really mild with temperatures reaching into the sixties.  It will be windy on Sunday out of the southwest with gusts over 30 mph at times.

Work Week

We will have two surges of cooler air, one stronger than the other this week.

Tuesday will be a low point as highs barely clear into the forties and may get stuck in the thirties in a few places.

Then a stronger push of colder air will arrive by Friday and last into Saturday.

The rest of the days look mild. Thursday should be the warmest with fifties coming back.

Tuesday Snow

The chance won’t go away!  It still looks more likely in Arkansas but there still may yet be something measurable in a portion of the Ozarks!