This is an update to the snow potential for tomorrow. We also have a wet weather system this weekend. All precipitation is good at this point but…
(Note: I’ll continue to mirror weather posts here but the favored site in the future will be the Daily Weather Blog at Ozarks Weather)
A narrow but intense band of snow is still forecast to develop on Thursday. The model runs over the last 24 hours since my last blog are about the same with track of the snow varying a bit with bigger fluctuations in snow amounts.
I put up my snow forecast on the drawing board this morning. My 4″ plus area hasn’t changed a whole lot. The “plus” could mean 6″ or even more but with these heavy wet snows riding on a small area of lift, it is difficult to know where the upper limit to snow is or where exactly it will fall.
The ensemble runs I mentioned yesterday have narrowed their range (not as extreme) and the mean now for Springfield is right around 4″.
Put me down for 4″ of snow in Springfield. This snow will really get going just after noon on Thursday and last into the early evening.
Note that snow that falls during the daylight hours will melt pretty quickly while snow which falls say in south central Missouri or north central Arkansas will “stick” for a time longer during the evening, overnight Thursday and very early on Friday.
The crazy thing is that this snow is not connected to a cold front. So in all probability, rain showers will take over perhaps in some areas by Friday morning and last into the day on Friday.
Wet and Chilly
The weekend looks damp and cold. We will be in the “warm” sector of a developing low pressure system, meaning forties will be around on Friday and Saturday in portions of the Ozarks.
There are good signals for decent rain development. In fact, the water equivalent for the upcoming two storms will probably exceed one inch. This will further knock down our drought condition for sure.
A backlash of snow is possible in say western Missouri late Saturday and early Sunday as this system departs.