Dec 222017
 

Radar at 3:30 pm

A band of rain is sliding up into the Ozarks late this afternoon.

As temperatures begin to fall near the surface, the rain is expected to make a transition over to snow during the evening hours.

Accumulations will range between barely measurable to maybe as much as 2″. With a warm ground and temperatures above freezing, travel won’t be bad at first.

By later tonight as temperatures drop below freezing, roads make become slick in spots.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for most of the area tonight.

 

Dec 212017
 

Precipitation Type Saturday at 6 am (NAM model from COD)

A White Christmas in the Ozarks still on the table!

As I’ve been watching the computer models this week, a new possibility for snow has overshadowed the original possibility.

A shield of rain will be spread north out of Arkansas late Friday. Because of the arrival of some colder air and because this will occur at night and on early Saturday, snow is possible on the northern end of the rain.

Accumulations will probably stay under one inch although a few inches are possible in some locations.  With a warm ground, not much of this will stick or stick around for long.  But perhaps some will remain for Christmas Eve.

A small band of light snow will drift over Missouri on Sunday too. This has always been a glorified dusting and its position has moved anywhere from northern Missouri to northern Arkansas as each model run has come out this week.

So chances are there!  Statistically, it’s a long shot most of the time so I’ll personally hold on to any chance!

 

Dec 192017
 

GFS Model Precipitation Type Sunday Morning (Image from COD)

It’s a hot topic for something cold!

Over the weekend, I hinted at the possibility of snow on Christmas Eve in the Ozarks. The chance for snow remains!

The funny thing about longer range forecasting is one looks for the general ingredients first: cold air and a disturbance.  Both of these continue to show up for Sunday but the details are still fuzzy.

It looks like light snow, not a major winter storms which is really the best kind for all concerned in that it looks nice without causing a travel problem.

Also, generally speaking, the last week of December and early January become more active meaning more precipitation chances and enough cold air to make winter precipitation a possibility.

Feb 202013
 

Possible Precipitation Type at 9 a.m. Thursday

Everything is progressing at about the same pace as this morning’s forecast.

One exception is the development of a light snow band out ahead of the main band expected later this evening.  This has produced some minor accumulations in portions of Barry, McDonald and Stone Counties in Missouri and Boone County in Arkansas.  It will remain light and weaken as it moves northeast.

The main show is still tonight and Thursday. Remember that many, including folks in Springfield, will go through a progression of precipitation types. It will start as snow later this evening, change over to sleet late tonight and then go to freezing rain by Thursday morning.

So waking up in Springfield, there will be several inches of snow/sleet on the ground with a glaze of ice on top of that.  Some icing of trees and wires will occur in Springfield however I don’t believe we will see the worst of it.

The heaviest icing should occur over areas of north-central Arkansas and south-central Missouri. I still feel as if coatings of near .40″ of an inch of ice are possible in these areas by tomorrow afternoon.

Pure snow accumulations will be reserved for areas about an hour north drive from Springfield during this storm.

I will have more updates later today.  This will include my video blog and a live web show at 6 p.m.

 

Feb 202013
 

Main Precipitation Threat Tonight/Thursday

All of the Ozarks are under some short of winter storm warning this morning for later tonight and Thursday. Ice accumulation is still a concern.

A huge amount of humidity is being lifted over a dome of cold air which will result in lots of rain aloft, which will transition to a mess in the Ozarks on the ground in the form of sleet and freezing rain.

Layout of Precipitation

There is an expected transition of precipitation type for many in the Ozarks. When the initial wave comes in tonight, it’s expected to be snow and some sleet.  This will probably stay snow in areas from let’s say Lamar to Camdenton northward.

As for Springfield, snow will give way to sleet and eventually freezing rain (ice) by dawn on Thursday.

Freezing Rain vs. Sleet: What’s the Difference?

 

Areas of northern Arkansas and south-central Missouri will hold on to freezing rain the longest and have the biggest threat of significant ice accumulations.

Totals

I expect Springfield will see several inches of snow/sleet overnight tonight with a glaze of ice on top of that starting sometime in the early morning hours of Thursday.

The snow up north could amount to 1-3″.  This of course will become a major snowstorm north and northwest of the Ozarks.

Ice accumulations will be between .10 and .40″ I think with the higher amounts in the area specified on the graphic.

Information Today/Tonight

I will post a winter storm update after the morning computer model runs come out, right around noon.

I will post a video review/blog by late afternoon.

Also, look for a live web show tonight to discuss the situation. Details coming up later today!

Mar 092012
 

Springfield Temperatures Winter 2011-2012

As you already know, no snow! Or very little this winter 2011-2012.  Can it snow in March? Yes. Will it? Not likely!  The pattern into the middle of March looks quite warm.

Temperatures

Winter goes in the record books as the period of December, January and February.  In Springfield, all three winter months recorded above normal temperatures.

There were a total of 14 sixty-degree high temperature days over our winter months with the highest reading of 69 occurring in January.

Our coldest mornings, 10 degrees on both days, came to us on the weekend of February 11/12 (right before the “snowstorm”)

Missouri as a whole recorded its third warmest winter on record going back 117 winters.  Most of the country was above normal with many states in the northern and northeastern U.S. within the top five warmest on record.

The lower 48 states recorded the 4th warmest winter on record and the warmest since the year 2000.

Precipitation

The snow total stands at 2.8″ which is in a tie for second on the least snowiest winter list with winter 1931-1932. Nearly all of the Springfield snowfall came on two “events”: a post cold front on January 11/12 and what I would classify as the only storm of the season on February 13th.  The February system dumped over 5 inches of snow to locations east of Springfield but only officially accumulated to 1.7″

In terms of precipitation, Springfield came in at 6.15″ which is on the dry side of normal by 1.88″

NOAA’s Report on Winter

NOAA Review of Winter for the Lower 48 States

Lots of States Above Normal Winter 2011-2012

Feb 142012
 
Potential Storm Tracks

Monday’s much anticipated snow got better at accumulating as it travelled east. Some of the higher totals:

 Licking  5″
 Plato  4.5
 Vichy  4.0
 Rolla  4.0
 Mansfield  4.0
 Iberia  4.0
 Highlandville  3.8
 Monett  3.0
 Richland  3.0

Springfield measured 1.7″ officially with a season total of 2.8″, still pretty slim!

Springfield National Weather Service Summary

Back to Rain

The next weather system looks warmer which means rain for the Ozarks. In fact, there might be enough instability to support some lightning and thunder as it swings through on Wednesday. The winter side of this next weather maker will be far to the north. Northwest Missouri may get a swath of snow along with portions of Kansas.  The severe storms’ side of this next system will be from east Texas through the deep south into Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama on Wednesday.

Storm Tracks

It’s interesting to watch potential storm tracks over the next week or so. So much so that I made a map showing their most likely tracks.  As of now, I don’t see any winter preciptation makers.  The only potential candidate would be the deep south weekend system.  Then there’s a hint at something the middle of next week (yellow). Stay connected…

 

 

 

 

 

 

Feb 132012
 

Snow Near A and 60, Webster Co. Credit: Paula Dean Little Wood

Today’s winter precipitation is unfolding pretty much as forecast.  I’m calling this our “speedbump snow”!

The band of snow moved in before sunrise.  Widespread totals of 1-2″ have be reported in the area with an occasional 3″ total. (Mansfield picked up just over 3″)  A viewer did also report 5 inches of snow near Norwood late this afternoon.

Snow is pretty much confined to areas east of Springfield and still coming down pretty good in some of those areas.  This will slowly wind down this afternoon and early evening.

Some warmer air aloft has changed the snow over to sleet or light freezing rain at times in areas from Springfield west.

Temperatures at the surface have warmed to around freezing in western Missouri and Arkansas. Readings will hover where they are or perhaps even rise a degree or two into the early evening hours.

I don’t believe the freezing rain or drizzle poses an additional travel problem. Arctic air is not poised to come slamming in here tonight and instantly freeze everything.  Temperature will be just below freezing however and drivers should take it easy of course.

Feb 132012
 

About 3/4" at 7am in Springfield

The snow has arrived!

This snow system has behaved itself quite nicely thus far.  It has initially run  into some very dry air so the snpw start time and totals so far have been somewhat hindered.

One inch snow totals are very common through about 6:30 am this Monday morning including Mtn. Home AR and Springfield.  The snow is sticking to area roadways.

Now that the air has been primed with higher humidity by this first snow batch, additional snow later today will be somewhat more efficient when it falls.  A forecast of 1-3″ storm total still looks just about right for the area.

Later today and this evening, a changeover to freezing drizzle is expected.  Since this is light precipitation, ice accumulations will be very light.

Oh, also, the Springfield National Weather Service radar is down for an upgrade in case anyone trying to access radar images on-line is wondering.