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Snow » Weather Or Not! | Weather or Not!
Mar 202013
 
One Computer Output for Snow by Thursday Night

One Computer Output for Snow by Thursday Night

This is an update to the snow potential for tomorrow.  We also have a wet weather system this weekend. All precipitation is good at this point but…

(Note: I’ll continue to mirror weather posts here but the favored site in the future will be the Daily Weather Blog at Ozarks Weather)

Snow Update

A narrow but intense band of snow is still forecast to develop on Thursday.  The model runs over the last 24 hours since my last blog are about the same with track of the snow varying a bit with bigger fluctuations in snow amounts.

I put up my snow forecast on the drawing board this morning.  My 4″ plus area hasn’t changed a whole lot.  The “plus” could mean 6″ or even more but with these heavy wet snows riding on a small area of lift, it is difficult to know where the upper limit to snow is or where exactly it will fall.

The ensemble runs I mentioned yesterday have narrowed their range (not as extreme) and the mean now for Springfield is right around 4″.

Put me down for 4″ of snow in Springfield. This snow will really get going just after noon on Thursday and last into the early evening.

Note that snow that falls during the daylight hours will melt pretty quickly while snow which falls say in south central Missouri or north central Arkansas will “stick” for a time longer during the evening, overnight Thursday and very early on Friday.

The crazy thing is that this snow is not connected to a cold front. So in all probability, rain showers will take over perhaps in some areas by Friday morning and last into the day on Friday.

My Seven Day Temperature Forecast

Wet and Chilly

Total Liquid Through Weekend

Total Liquid Through Weekend

The weekend looks damp and cold. We will be in the “warm” sector of a developing low pressure system, meaning forties will be around on Friday and Saturday in portions of the Ozarks.

There are good signals for decent rain development. In fact, the water equivalent for the upcoming two storms will probably exceed one inch.  This will further knock down our drought condition for sure.

A backlash of snow is possible in say western Missouri late Saturday and early Sunday as this system departs.

 

 

Mar 192013
 
Snow Total "Range"

Snow Total “Range”

Today will be near average for middle March with temperatures in the fifties. It still looks like accumulating snow in the Ozarks on Thursday!

(Note: I’ll continue to mirror weather posts here but the favored site in the future will be the Daily Weather Blog at Ozarks Weather)

Nice Last Full Day of Winter

Well, astronomically anyway, this is the last day of winter.  Today will be a mild one. I expect high temperatures in the middle to upper fifties with lots of sunshine.

It will turn cooler on Wednesday as a front slips through the Ozarks. Wednesday will drop back down in the forties.

O.K., The Snow!

Snow will fall in the Ozarks on Thursday.  It will be a wet snow with temperatures right at or slightly above freezing. There will be an area that will probably get 4 inches or more.

Beyond these statements. uncertainty remains with regard to placement and totals.  I put my best guess on the Drawing Board this morning.

Whenever a “warm” snow is forecast, the amount of humidity is pretty high and the potential for a wet, heavy snow always exists on the coldest side of the storm system, especially if the storm has a lot of “lift” which this one seems to have. These types of snow are not unusual during March.

Add to this a track which has wobbled around from model run to model run.  This type of uncertainty is demonstrated on the graph which shows an ensemble of computer model snow forecasts. These are all run at the same time with the same data but the conditions are “tweaked” mathematically to see how sensitive the situation is to minor changes.  One model cranks out nearly 10″ for Springfield (green). However, the mean or average is more like 2″.  This is what keeps meteorologist up at night!

This will all start late morning on Thursday.  Rain will be more likely in northwest Arkansas, snow in central Missouri.

7 Day High/Low Forecast

It Gets Better!

This weekend is looking very interesting too.  While it does look like a cold rain will develop on Saturday, the northwest edge of this storm will be another snow producer!  This might be another snowstorm for portions of Kansas and northwest Missouri this weekend. The backlash snow area this system will visit the Ozarks on Sunday

 

Feb 262013
 

Pre-Dawn Snow in Clinton (Adam McMullin)

Snow is piling up in the Ozarks!

As of 6 am. there are numerous reports of 4″+of snow in areas just north of Springfield including Polk, Dade and Webster Counties.  Around the Lake of the Ozarks area, 4-6″ seems to describe it well.  Cole Camp in northern Benton County is close to 10″!

The National Weather Service measured 2″ at the airport in Springfield.

Lessor amounts included 2″ in Kimberling City and about a half inch in Gravette in Benton County, Arkansas.

It’s still snowing in these areas and will for several more hours. The rates of snow suggest another inch or two is possible adding to what has already fallen as slightly heavier snow bands rotate through the area.

Snow Reports as of 6 a.m.

Snow Bands on Radar at 6:10 am

Feb 252013
 

Snow Vs. Rain

A system coming out of the southwest will spread a band of rain across most of the Ozarks this afternoon with snow expected for many later tonight.

Rain Today

Rain showers will start breaking out by late morning over some areas with a main surge of rain expected in a line through the afternoon hours.

Snow Areas

The northwestern edge of this rain area will change to snow by this evening in western Missouri.  This trend will continue overnight spreading about 1-4″ of snow across areas northwest and west of Springfield.

Then by the morning and afternoon hours of Tuesday, a backlash area of snow will roll through the Ozarks, pushing the snow line more to the south and east.  This area will add another 1-3″ of snow, some on areas hit by the overnight snow and some in areas yet to receive it.

I included two maps estimating rain vs. snow areas for two different times.

Total Storm Snowfall

Total snow accumulations will reach over six inches in portions of St. Clair, Benton, Cedar and Vernon Counties by tomorrow afternoon. The storm is forecast to dump as much as 10″ of snow around Kansas City and a band exceeding one foot could occur between Clinton and Kansas!

Cold Week

It will be a chilly week ahead with highs only in the thirties and lows in the teens on some mornings!

Feb 242013
 

Another Winter Storm

This will be a pretty nice and mild Sunday even as projections place another winter storm in a portion of the Ozarks by late Monday.

Mild Sunday

Overall, a warmer day is expected in the Ozarks today.  Seasonal norms have climbed since their bottom out back in January with a low/high range now around 29/51. High temperatures will be very close to this mark today.  I expect a lot of sunshine to go with this.

Monday/Tuesday Storm

First off, Kansas City will appears to be on track to add at least another 6″ to their winter snow total!  The heaviest snow band is projected from northwest Oklahoma, into south-central and eastern Kansas and on into central and northern Missouri.  This all happens Monday evening into Tuesday morning.

As for the Ozarks, snow will range from nothing in northern Arkansas to perhaps near 6″ in Benton County Missouri and areas nearby.

I’ve got Springfield on a 1-2″ snow track with totals ramping up the more north you head.

Snow Projection Monday Night/Tuesday

Travel north to Kansas City or west to Wichita will be a mess Tuesday morning!

This again will begin late Monday evening and last into the overnight hours.

Colder Trend

All of next week looks chilly!  All high temperatures will stay in the thirties during the week.

Feb 232013
 

Winter Storm Watch Area for Monday

The weather system I mentioned as a rain/snow maker yesterday has perked up and appears to be on a more southern track for Monday.

Snow Maker

Monday’s system is now a potential winter storm. The enclosed map of the winter storm watch shows much of eastern/central Kansas and northern Oklahoma in the outlook area for snow.

What this means for the Ozarks is a possible snow accumulation now for some areas on Monday night/Tuesday morning!

The enclosed map shows one scenario for late Monday with the position of the low and snow areas (in blue).

This will start out as rain in the Ozarks on Monday afternoon.

Computer Model Forecast for 3 a.m. Tuesday Morning

Something to monitor now for sure!

This Weekend

It’s a fairly chilly morning over the Ozarks with widespread teens reported at 7 a.m.

Saturday will be on the chilly side for the season as the high temperatures stays in the thirties.

Sunday however will be closer to seasonal norms as the thermometer peaks up into the lower fifties.

Colder Week

The final week of February and the very beginning of March will be averaging much colder in our area. Get ready for many high temperatures only in the thirties!

Feb 202013
 

Possible Precipitation Type at 9 a.m. Thursday

Everything is progressing at about the same pace as this morning’s forecast.

One exception is the development of a light snow band out ahead of the main band expected later this evening.  This has produced some minor accumulations in portions of Barry, McDonald and Stone Counties in Missouri and Boone County in Arkansas.  It will remain light and weaken as it moves northeast.

The main show is still tonight and Thursday. Remember that many, including folks in Springfield, will go through a progression of precipitation types. It will start as snow later this evening, change over to sleet late tonight and then go to freezing rain by Thursday morning.

So waking up in Springfield, there will be several inches of snow/sleet on the ground with a glaze of ice on top of that.  Some icing of trees and wires will occur in Springfield however I don’t believe we will see the worst of it.

The heaviest icing should occur over areas of north-central Arkansas and south-central Missouri. I still feel as if coatings of near .40″ of an inch of ice are possible in these areas by tomorrow afternoon.

Pure snow accumulations will be reserved for areas about an hour north drive from Springfield during this storm.

I will have more updates later today.  This will include my video blog and a live web show at 6 p.m.

 

Feb 202013
 

Main Precipitation Threat Tonight/Thursday

All of the Ozarks are under some short of winter storm warning this morning for later tonight and Thursday. Ice accumulation is still a concern.

A huge amount of humidity is being lifted over a dome of cold air which will result in lots of rain aloft, which will transition to a mess in the Ozarks on the ground in the form of sleet and freezing rain.

Layout of Precipitation

There is an expected transition of precipitation type for many in the Ozarks. When the initial wave comes in tonight, it’s expected to be snow and some sleet.  This will probably stay snow in areas from let’s say Lamar to Camdenton northward.

As for Springfield, snow will give way to sleet and eventually freezing rain (ice) by dawn on Thursday.

Freezing Rain vs. Sleet: What’s the Difference?

 

Areas of northern Arkansas and south-central Missouri will hold on to freezing rain the longest and have the biggest threat of significant ice accumulations.

Totals

I expect Springfield will see several inches of snow/sleet overnight tonight with a glaze of ice on top of that starting sometime in the early morning hours of Thursday.

The snow up north could amount to 1-3″.  This of course will become a major snowstorm north and northwest of the Ozarks.

Ice accumulations will be between .10 and .40″ I think with the higher amounts in the area specified on the graphic.

Information Today/Tonight

I will post a winter storm update after the morning computer model runs come out, right around noon.

I will post a video review/blog by late afternoon.

Also, look for a live web show tonight to discuss the situation. Details coming up later today!

Feb 132013
 

2" of Snow Near Hickory Hills CC (Ryan Cantrell)

The snow overnight was measurable but because of the warm temperatures and road surfaces, no major travel problems have arisen.

Snow Gone

The snow has left most of the area. The Springfield National Weather Service reports 1″ at the airport and a report of 2″ came from east Springfield and out of Verona, MO.

Expect a sharp cloudy to sunny point later today as this system moves on.

Thursday Mild

A west wind will produces a pretty good Thursday in the Ozarks. Skies are expected to be mostly sunny and high temperatures should manage to get into the lower fifties Thursday.

Cold Snap

A reality check in the form of some sharply colder air is due in Friday. Both Friday and Saturday look pretty cold.  High will be in the thirties both days while low drop into the teens Saturday morning.

Sunday Recovery

Computer Model Temperature Trends

A rapid reversal is expected on Sunday as a strong flow of southwesterly wind brings our temperature back up once again.  Both Sunday and Monday will be back into the fifties.

Rain System

The next wet weather system on Monday looks to be all rain, with maybe a parting shot of snow Monday night for some.

It looks like two weather makers next week, Monday and again late Wednesday and Thursday.

 

Feb 122013
 

Forecast for Snow Overnight

The Ozarks are still on track for some snow overnight tonight!

Snow Set Up

A system in the southwest is beginning to transport humidity, clouds and precipitation northward this morning.  The 4:30 a.m. radar image is shown. Green rain, blue snow.

This will start as a chilly rain in the Ozarks toward evening.  The temperature profile between rain and snow is right on the line for later tonight and into the overnight hours.

As is often the case in these borderline snow systems, additional cooling needed to keep the precipitation as snow for longer periods of time will come from either the core of heavier bands of precipitation or from higher elevations.

Weather Early This A.M.

Since temperatures will be right around freezing when it’s snowing, accumulations will mainly be seen in grassy areas.  But in areas of enhanced snow some sticking on roadways is possible. Take into consideration that you will be waking up to whatever falls on Wednesday morning!

Steady Wednesday and Thursday

Most of whatever snow the Ozarks receives will melt on Wednesday and Thursday with the return of sunshine and an above freezing daytime pattern.  Forties on Wednesday, right around fifty on Thursday.

Big Front

Colder than normal temperatures blast into the area Friday and Saturday.  Only thirties for maximum temperatures heading into the weekend.

Next System

The next “weather system of interest” comes our way on Monday. Looks like initially a rainmaker for the Ozarks with snow on its backside. Worth watching.