Storm Report for Tuesday, January 29th, 2013

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Feb 012013
 

Two EF1 Tornadoes Tuesday Morning

The day will be best remembered for the extremely generous rainfall which was so desperately needed in the area!  We also had two confirmed tornadoes and several tornado warnings along with some wind damage in the Ozarks.

The two EF1 tornado reports north of Springfield are connected to a rapidly-moving bowing thunderstorm segment which traveled from southeast Kansas to Morgan County during the morning hours.  The first EF1 tornado occurred around 11 am just N of Cedar Springs in Cedar County. A second EF1 tornado happened about 20 minutes later in St. Clair County about 4 miles NE of Gerster.

Path pf Northern Bowing Segment

The bowing segment also produced wind damage at various points along the path.

Another bowing line segment came out of northwestern Arkansas late in the afternoon.  The rotating portion of this segment passed through extreme southeastern Stone County and southwestern Taney County.  It was responsible for a tornado warning for those areas during the 4 o’clock hour.  Several areas of rotation occurred with this line segment and wind damage was reported but thus far no tornadoes have been identified with this system.

The rain was the other big story.  I included the latest drought summary for the Ozarks which doesn’t include the rain of Tuesday.  The drought is considered moderate over much of Missouri and more critical over portions of northwest Arkansas.  By the time the report comes out next Thursday, the generous rains of Tuesday will be included and it will be interesting to compare.

Nearly all areas of the Ozarks received at least one inch of rain.  Many got more than two inches or even three inch plus totals.

Radar Rain Estimate from Late Tuesday Night

Drought Index 1/31/13

Bowing Line Segment With Rotation Indicators in Taney County

Severe Storms, Today, January 29 [UPDATE]

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Jan 292013
 

Severe Threat Today

Here’s the latest on the severe weather potential today.

This morning, some storms can be seen firing over western Missouri.  These are not the main event but could pose a slight risk of some damaging winds and hail over the next few hours.

Later today, a fast-moving squall line should move in from Oklahoma and Kansas.  I would put the main line of storms in Springfield around 1 p.m. and it will be organizing as it moves through.

It’s a typical winter severe situation for the Ozarks in that the instability will be on the weak side while the overall jet stream wind shear is off the charts.  This will support a squall line capable of straight-line wind damage. This threat will be enhanced in surging/bowing segments of the line of storms.  These are also areas which will need to be watched for isolated tornado potential.

Tornado Probability within 25 Miles of a Point

I don’t see a strong signal for isolated storm development ahead of the main line but these types of storms need to be watched for as they have a higher severe weather incidence connected to them.

The line of storms will progress eastward quickly, entering areas of southern Missouri and northern Arkansas by around dinner-time.

The cold front itself will keep scattered showers and storms in play behind the line but I don’t think these pose a large severe threat at this time.

Severe Storms, Tuesday, January 29, [FORECAST]

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Jan 282013
 

Severe Storm Outlook for Tuesday

Here is a forecast for the chance for severe weather and heavy rain in the Ozarks on Tuesday.

First for tonight, storms developing over Oklahoma and Kansas may reach severe limits. It doesn’t appear that these will remain at this strength level as they approach the western portion of Missouri by late tonight.  Additional strong storms may also fire in western Missouri. Again, these are expected to stay below severe limits.

It looks like the greatest threat for severe storms in Springfield on Tuesday is between noon and 3 pm.  This would take the form of a developing line of thunderstorms which should start right along the Kansas/Missouri border just before noon.  The main threat continues to be straight line damaging winds with this line.  There doesn’t appear to be a signal for isolated storms out ahead of the line but if these do form, they would pose a greater threat for damaging winds and tornadoes.

The line of storms should become better organized as it heads east during the late afternoon and early evening.  It looks like the low level winds will become more favorable for tornadoes in south central Missouri and northern Arkansas.  This squall line will continue through the night well to our southeast in central Arkansas and points southeast.

As a cold front moves in from the northwest Tuesday night, a few storms may form northwest of Springfield and sweep southeast. These are expected to stay below severe limits.

Simulated Radar Forecast for 3 p.m. Tuesday

As for the rain, this looks pretty good.  Lines like this with a great supply of moisture typically expand a produce a huge band of heavy rain behind the leading severe edge.  This would translate to the heaviest rains from Springfield southeast.  I’ll put Springfield close to 1.5″ while West Plains and Mtn. Home Arkansas will likely top 2″ of rain.

Warm and Humid, Rain and Storms on Tuesday

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Jan 282013
 

Rain Forecast Through Tuesday Night

The temperature has gone up overnight!  It’s in the lower sixties in many areas this morning.  This will set the stage for a seventy-degree day.

Today

Warm and humid for this time year!  Temperatures should rise at least into the upper sixties today with lower seventies likely in many areas. The record high for today in Springfield is 72° and we’ll get pretty close!

I’m sure everyone has felt the increase in humidity too.  The Gulf of Mexico is open for business and steady southerly winds have been transporting the higher humidity northward and will continue to do so through Tuesday.

Tuesday Rain and Storms

With such high values of humidity (and a deep layer of it too), heavy rain should break out out ahead of a strong cold front on Tuesday.  Rain totals should exceed one inch in many locations and perhaps approach two inches in areas of northern Arkansas and south-central Missouri.

A line of thunderstorms should begin to develop on Tuesday and move east through the Ozarks.  There is enough unstable air coupled with an overall strong wind shear structure to support severe storms on Tuesday.  The main threat continues to be damaging straight line winds however isolated tornadoes simply cannot be ruled out and will depend on small scale squall line features not known a day before it happens.

Hopefully, early morning showers and storms and clouds will keep the sun from breaking through tomorrow which would keep instability values as low as possible.

It will be an active afternoon and early evening in the Ozarks!  I will issue a severe storm blog this evening.

 Big Cold Front

Wednesday will be a rude awakening  for us!  Wednesday and Thursday will be cold days has high temperatures stay in the thirties.

Hoping For Decent Rain, Some Severe Storm Concern for Tuesday

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Jan 272013
 

11 a.m. Temperatures

The Ozarks will be under a warm breeze with increasing humidity through Tuesday evening.

Warm Conditions

Today has been slow to warm with persistent clouds and a stronger breeze adding a little chill. A warm front is moving through from the southwest. It’s 56° in Joplin at 11 a.m. and only 40° in Rolla.

Spring-like weather will be around through Tuesday.  Expect highs each day to rise into the sixties. South winds will not only keep us warm for the season but will consistently transport higher humidity from the Gulf of Mexico into the area.

Rain and Storms

A cold front will arrive on Tuesday.  It looks like it will get to Springfield right around dinner time.  Out ahead of the front, a line of thunderstorms is expected to develop.  The air will be weakly unstable but the jet stream will be strong.  It looks like the best combination of instability and wind shear will lie to the east of Springfield by late afternoon.

Severe Probabilities for Tuesday

A line of storms strongly implies straight-line winds will be the main severe threat Tuesday.  As is always the case, bowing segments will have to be watched for weak tornado development.

As for the rain, this has potential to put down more than an inch of rain from Springfield eastward.  Most of this will be connected to the Tuesday squall line but some scattered rain and thunder chances also exist on Monday night.

Colder Air

Wednesday and the rest of the work and school week will be cold again.  Wednesday through Friday will see highs return to the thirties.

Rain Chances, Spring-Like, Thunderstorms On Tuesday

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Jan 262013
 

Rain Forecast: Tonight Through Monday A.M.

Overall, a warmer pattern of weather has started which will last through Tuesday with rounds of rain and thunder thrown in.

Fifties and Sixties

Warmer weather will rule.  Today’s highs should crack fifty-degrees in a few areas.  This will happen again on Sunday when upper fifties are possible.

Highs well into the sixties will follow on Monday and Tuesday as warm southerly winds continue to blow.

The record highs are 72° on Monday and 74° on Tuesday.

Rain Chances

The first round of rain showers will work its way into the Ozarks tonight. While the rain has a chance to be widespread, the totals will likely be fairly low, with most areas receiving less than two tenths of an inch.

Rain and Storms

Another round of rain is expected in the Ozarks on Tuesday. The amount of humidity from the Gulf looks fairly impressive with this system, suggesting a high potential for heavier rain. The question is where exactly?

I’m leaning toward a scenario where a line of storms will form in the Ozarks on Tuesday and sweep southeast, meaning the rain should be better organized and heavier in areas southeast of Springfield on this day.

SPC Tuesday Severe Risk Area

Instability will be around so storms are definitely in the forecast for Tuesday. There is even a possibility of severe storms on Tuesday given the instability and wind shear available.  The details are still a bit sketchy with enough subtle variation between the models to not be able to pin down how much of the Ozarks will see a severe weather threat.

Mixed-Layer CAPE Spread: Unstable Air Indicator

I included the SPC severe storm forecast for Tuesday and a plot of the increase in instability.

Severe Storms, Tonight, 12/19/12 [FORECAST]

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Dec 192012
 

Tornado Probabilities for This Evening

An intense low pressure system will be developing and moving from Kansas into western Missouri tonight. A few thunderstorms will be developing this evening and the issue is how many might be severe.

Set-Up

Overall, scattered storms will transition quickly to a line of storms later this evening across most of the Ozarks.  Wind shear is very favorable for stronger storms capable of supporting strong surface wind gusts with the heavier storms.  This set-up might support an isolated tornado.

Tornado Watch Likely

One overall negative factor is the low instability. Having stated this, the highest instability will set up later this evening in northwest Arkansas, extreme southern Missouri and then north central Arkansas.  Low level instability with a very high humidity surface air mass will likely make the most of any long-lived updraft in a storm.

The SPC outlooks looks reasonable with regard to severe weather.

I’ll be watching this area carefully tonight.  Remember, wind chills in the teens and snow flurries flying in about 12 hours! That’s why I love the weather!

Storms, Flurries, Blustery Thursday, Unsettled Christmas Week

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Dec 192012
 

Simulated Radar at 3 am

Hang on, we’ll have some “weather moments” over the next week or so!

This Evening

A line of showers and storm is forecast to develop this evening over the Ozarks. With regard to severe weather, the wind shear will be favorable for severe storms. The main question will be the degree of instability available during this time.  It’s something to watch for a few storms developing wind damage potential.  Folks in south central Missouri and north central Arkansas should especially be on watch for this activity by late evening.

Thursday!

O.K. big changes will occur for Thursday. As the heavy snow band stays well north of Springfield and the Ozarks, there will be flurries flying around the area tomorrow morning!  Some of this might stick in grassy areas. FYI, if you are travelling to Kansas City, they may see 1-3″ of snow in that area by Thursday afternoon.

The wind will be incredibly gusty behind a deepening low.  Wind gusts over 30 mph will be common in the area on Thursday creating a very blustery condition.

Temperatures will barely clear freezing and wind chills will be in the upper teens at times tomorrow morning.

Calm Weekend

Eventually, high pressure will settle in this weekend providing a calm and seasonal cool pattern for us Friday through Sunday.

Surface Map Forecasts for Christmas Eve

Unsettled Christmas Holiday

Lot of interesting developments are in the works next week. Several systems coming ashore out west will produce rain and maybe snow in the Ozarks.

The details keep changing with these systems which is typical this many days out.

The latest output suggests a rain system will affect the area late Sunday and early Christmas Eve.  Then, another low is forecast to crank up late on Christmas Day. This one may bring snow to the Ozarks Christmas night!

Updates

I’ll have lots of updates on my personal web site and on social media over these next few days as new developments come in on these various storm systems.  Be sure to check in often!

 

 

Severe Storms, Today, October 17 [UPDATE]

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Oct 172012
 

Radar and Severe Threat a 1 pm

Storms are firing to the west of Springfield at this writing at 1 pm. A watch may be issued to the area shown on the inserted map.

A cold front is racing southeast toward our area this afternoon.  The air out ahead of it is only weakly unstable thus far with persistent cloud cover buitting the brakes on increasing the instability.

The front and developing storms will continue to move on through this afternoon and will need until late this afternoon in areas east of Springfield to mature into anything significant.   Having  stated this, Springfield may be included in a watch. The line of storms will approach Springfield by about 2:30 pm.

Watching….

Severe Storms, Today, October 17 [FORECAST]

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Oct 172012
 

SPC Severe Threat Area

A fast moving cold front may produce some severe storms later today in areas mostly east of Springfield.

It will be a race between moist unstable air which will be drawn quickly northward out ahead of the front and the timing of the front itself.  The front looks like it will pass through Springfield around 4 pm.

This front will be on its way out of the Ozarks by 6-7 pm. This would leave a window of opportunity for severe storms in let’s say Phelps, Dent, Pulaski, Wright, Howell, Shannon, Oregon and the eastern portions of Douglas and Ozark Counties in Missouri and Marion, Baxter, Fulton, Searcy Stone and Izard Counties in northern Arkansas.  This would be in the 4  to 7 pm time frame.

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