I’m investigating a possible personal storm chase for this Sunday (3/18) into the Great Plains.
This idea has been evolving slowly all week.
Much of the success of this chase will hinge on how a deep storm in the upper atmosphere moves into the Great Plains.
It seems clear that humidity will be in good supply and that the above mentioned storm will finally bring the wind shear values up to severe levels.
12z runs this morning look like the back up the included forecast area from the SPC.
The pluses include the unstable air and wind shear.
Minuses: I did notice evidence of a large middle and high-level shield of clouds out ahead of the system which could limit daytime heating a tad.
Also, the storms which fire along the dryline may not reach severe levels under after they move east into the more favorable air which this time of year could very easily be after dark.