One Computer Output for Snow by Thursday Night

This is an update to the snow potential for tomorrow.  We also have a wet weather system this weekend. All precipitation is good at this point but…

(Note: I’ll continue to mirror weather posts here but the favored site in the future will be the Daily Weather Blog at Ozarks Weather)

Snow Update

A narrow but intense band of snow is still forecast to develop on Thursday.  The model runs over the last 24 hours since my last blog are about the same with track of the snow varying a bit with bigger fluctuations in snow amounts.

I put up my snow forecast on the drawing board this morning.  My 4″ plus area hasn’t changed a whole lot.  The “plus” could mean 6″ or even more but with these heavy wet snows riding on a small area of lift, it is difficult to know where the upper limit to snow is or where exactly it will fall.

The ensemble runs I mentioned yesterday have narrowed their range (not as extreme) and the mean now for Springfield is right around 4″.

Put me down for 4″ of snow in Springfield. This snow will really get going just after noon on Thursday and last into the early evening.

Note that snow that falls during the daylight hours will melt pretty quickly while snow which falls say in south central Missouri or north central Arkansas will “stick” for a time longer during the evening, overnight Thursday and very early on Friday.

The crazy thing is that this snow is not connected to a cold front. So in all probability, rain showers will take over perhaps in some areas by Friday morning and last into the day on Friday.

My Seven Day Temperature Forecast

Wet and Chilly

Total Liquid Through Weekend

The weekend looks damp and cold. We will be in the “warm” sector of a developing low pressure system, meaning forties will be around on Friday and Saturday in portions of the Ozarks.

There are good signals for decent rain development. In fact, the water equivalent for the upcoming two storms will probably exceed one inch.  This will further knock down our drought condition for sure.

A backlash of snow is possible in say western Missouri late Saturday and early Sunday as this system departs.

Snow Total “Range”

Today will be near average for middle March with temperatures in the fifties. It still looks like accumulating snow in the Ozarks on Thursday!

(Note: I’ll continue to mirror weather posts here but the favored site in the future will be the Daily Weather Blog at Ozarks Weather)

Nice Last Full Day of Winter

Well, astronomically anyway, this is the last day of winter.  Today will be a mild one. I expect high temperatures in the middle to upper fifties with lots of sunshine.

It will turn cooler on Wednesday as a front slips through the Ozarks. Wednesday will drop back down in the forties.

O.K., The Snow!

Snow will fall in the Ozarks on Thursday.  It will be a wet snow with temperatures right at or slightly above freezing. There will be an area that will probably get 4 inches or more.

Beyond these statements. uncertainty remains with regard to placement and totals.  I put my best guess on the Drawing Board this morning.

Whenever a “warm” snow is forecast, the amount of humidity is pretty high and the potential for a wet, heavy snow always exists on the coldest side of the storm system, especially if the storm has a lot of “lift” which this one seems to have. These types of snow are not unusual during March.

Add to this a track which has wobbled around from model run to model run.  This type of uncertainty is demonstrated on the graph which shows an ensemble of computer model snow forecasts. These are all run at the same time with the same data but the conditions are “tweaked” mathematically to see how sensitive the situation is to minor changes.  One model cranks out nearly 10″ for Springfield (green). However, the mean or average is more like 2″.  This is what keeps meteorologist up at night!

This will all start late morning on Thursday.  Rain will be more likely in northwest Arkansas, snow in central Missouri.

7 Day High/Low Forecast

It Gets Better!

This weekend is looking very interesting too.  While it does look like a cold rain will develop on Saturday, the northwest edge of this storm will be another snow producer!  This might be another snowstorm for portions of Kansas and northwest Missouri this weekend. The backlash snow area this system will visit the Ozarks on Sunday

Expected Rain Totals Over the Weekend

Some locations in the Ozarks may see the thermometer touch near eighty. A front will change that this weekend.

(Note: I’ll continue to mirror weather posts here but the favored site in the future will be the Daily Weather Blog at Ozarks Weather)

Toasty?

For this time of year, upper seventies/lower eighties are about as warm as it gets. In fact, today’s record high is 79° recorded in 1983 and we’ll be close!

The pattern features a broad fetch of warm southwesterly winds. It will only be around for today so enjoy the warm! (hooky!)

Changeable Weekend Weather

A cool front will drape itself across northern Arkansas on Saturday. This will not only cool us down (not frigid just not near records!) but also set up a period or two of rain and showers.

This is good news of course despite the weekend timing as the drought is wearing away on its eastern edge which includes much of the Ozarks.

Rain totals over the weekend might just exceed one inch from Springfield on east with a bulls-eye over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

This type of east-west rain pattern is common (and welcome) along fronts lined up in the same way. A ‘wave” or low pressure area traveling along the front on Sunday will spike rain chances.

The first hints of rain will wait until late Saturday afternoon with several rounds of showers after that through early Monday morning.

As for temperatures, its hard to follow near eighty!  On Saturday, the front will cause a gradient of temperature with seventies still possible in northern Arkansas and only fifties up around Lake of the Ozarks.

Traveling Weather Systems

Next week, at least two addition precipitation chances should visit the Ozarks.  One on Wednesday and another, stronger system late week.

The temperatures will be coldest around Monday/Tuesday.

Computer Temperature Trends

Today and Friday will be much warmer in the Ozarks!

(Note: I’ll continue to mirror weather posts here but the favored site in the future will be the Daily Weather Blog at Ozarks Weather)
Spring-Like

Two very warm days are coming up.  Today, we’ll have no problem rising into the sixties. On Friday,  into the upper seventies! This would be the warmest day of the year.

The surface winds will be coming out of the south, keeping is mild through early Saturday.

Playing “hooky” on Friday might be something to consider as the weekend looks a tad wet and slightly cooler.

Increasing Humidity

Friday Morning Forecast Map

By later today, humidity will rise a bit and this coupled with a front will aid our next rain chance in the Ozarks.

The cool front looks like it will move to a position just south of the area by early Saturday.  It look like it will hang up for a while which is good for rain chances which so often occur on the cool or north side of such a feature.

Rain totals of .50 to 1.00″ are possible.  Click here for interactive rain forecast on the Drawing Board

Up and Down

The front will be pushed out of the area by Monday.  Cooler air will be in place for early next week but not that far from typical mid-March readings.

The flow aloft goes back to being out of the southwest which many of you know implies a warming trend for the later part of next week.

Weather Map at 4 a.m.

This morning we are on the forward (cold) side of a high pressure system. Our temperature fortune will reverse in a big way once we are on the other side!

(Note: I’ll continue to mirror weather posts here but the favored site in the future will be the Daily Weather Blog at Ozarks Weather)

Cool Day

After a start below freezing this morning, high temperatures are expected to only reach the forties today.  Sunshine shouldn’t be a problem with the possible exception of a few high clouds later today.

Warming Trend

Our warmest day of the year so far was 72° back on Saturday.  We could top that on Friday!

The flow of wind at the surface will come out of the southwest starting tomorrow, allowing a big warm-up to take shape.

I expect sixties Thursday and seventies on Friday.

Rain Chances

This weekend remains mild but not as warm as Friday.

The next weather system looks to have a decent rain potential but its exact placement isn’t known. If it heads a bit more south, we are in a better rain area which is of course desired.

Possible Weekend Rain Area

The potential for another hit of .50 to 1.00″ of rain is there.  I included the latest weekend rain projection from the HPC

Staying Mild

Our run-ins with cold snaps which has been going on since late February seems to be fading.

Much of next week looks mild to warm featuring fifty and sixty degree days.

7 a.m. Wind Chill

This morning the Ozarks has some freezing drizzle and wind chills in the teens!

(Note: I’ll continue to mirror weather posts here but the favored site in the future will be Ozarks Weather)

Brrr!

Winds are whipping out of the northwest in the wake of yesterday’s cold front.

There has also been a hint of drizzle which is freezing on area road ways.  Some slide-offs have occurred, watch out this a.m. when driving!

Cool Days

Although it will fell warmer  the next few days (more sun, less wind), it will still be on the cool side for this time of year.

Weak high pressure will provide some nice days on Tuesday and Wednesday

Big Warm Up

The real warmth kicks in on Thursday and lasts into the weekend.

Sixties are in the bag and a seventy is not out of the question!

Radar Estimated Rain as of 10:15 a.m.

The rain keeps reinventing itself and it’s great!

(Note: I’ll continue to mirror weather posts here but the favored site in the future will be Ozarks Weather)

Rain, Rain

Springfield’s rain total was over 1.3″ as of 10 a.m. and it’s still raining. Weather observer Bob Herrell near Harrison, AR just hit the 1.2″ mark on his automated site.

Many locations from Greene Co southwest into northwest Arkansas have picked up between 1-2″ of rain. Some gauges in Benton County, AR have tipped over the 2″ mark. Very welcome!

The back edge of the steady rain will slowly work its way east this morning and afternoon.

Cold Air

A cold front will be in later today. We will get a shot of cold air to start the week off.  

Monday will be the coldest day in the forecast as highs only reach into the forties.

Mild to Warm

The rest of the seven day forecast is warmer!

Tuesday and Wednesday will level off in the fifties.

Thursday through Saturday will be the warmest stretch so far this season. We may get out first seventy-degree day by late in the week!

Nice Rain in the Forecast

A few widely scattered rain showers visited our area overnight. More organized rain is headed our way later today.

The Rain

Welcome rain will visit the Ozarks later today.  A bad of rain with a few rumbles of thunder will develop later today.

Before the rain returns, it will be a warm afternoon as readings rise well into the sixties.

This rain will begin affecting areas just west of Springfield by the 3-6 p.m. range and then spread/move eastward during the evening hours.  Rain fall amounts should fall in the .25″ – .75″ range with a higher potential in the stronger cells.

While a few embedded thundershowers are expected, severe weather is not.  The area of severe thunderstorm potential will likely stay at arms length perhaps as close as northwest Arkansas.

The rain may linger into the early morning hours of Sunday as well.

FROPA

Computer Temperature Trends

A FROntal PAssage is expected later on Sunday which will cause temperatures to start falling during Sunday afternoon.

Sunday evening will be much colder, not a great start for our first Daylight Saving evening!

The coldest day as a result of the cold front will be Monday with highs only in the lower forties.

Temperature Upswing

All of the rest of the week will be milder.  A return of fifties and sixties is likely through Friday. No rain chances are anticipated for the rest of the week.

What Radar Might Look Like Saturday Morning

Thursday’s high in Springfield was 60°, I think we can step this up again today and on Saturday.

Warmer Treat

This return to warmer weather is nice.  Many folks might remember last March (2012) when Springfield recorded four eighty-degree days and 15 seventy-degree days and ended up being the warmest March on record!

I don’t see that extreme warmth this March but it will reach into the sixties both today and Saturday. Late next week looks about as warm too.

I’m throwing down grass seed on new top top soil today.  Always watch what a weatherperson does!

Shower Chances

Portions of the Ozarks will see some rain showers overnight tonight as humidity rides up from the south and a small disturbance brushes by. This rain would be most likely in western and central Missouri during the overnight hours and very early Saturday.

After dry hours during the day on Saturday, another band of rain will roll through the Ozarks later on Saturday during the evening hours. I’m forecasting rain amounts ranging from .25-.75″ from this latest system.

Daylight Shift

Speaking of later on Saturday, “spring forward” is coming up.  Clocks need to be set one hour ahead before going to bed Saturday night.

Chilly Start to the Workweek

It’s school Spring break next week for Springfield schools (SPS) and Missouri State and it will start chilly.  I’m thinking only forties will be possible on Monday.

Thereafter,  another warming trend looks in the works.  A weak cool front might drop by mid-week and from this distance it looks to be a non-player with regard to temperature impact.  I think we can get some sixties back by late week.

Warmer Winds Developing/6 a.m. Temperature

The warm-up really begins today with three days of above average temperatures ahead,

Some Sixties

Daytime temperatures in the sixties look likely on both Friday and Saturday. Today will be no slouch with readings well into the fifties.

The latest wedge of cool air continues to slide east today. As a result, southerly winds will kick in and temperatures will rise.

Warm Before Rain

Rain Forecast for Saturday

As a high slides off, low pressure and a cool front will begin to make there way into the Plains on Saturday.

This system will be our next rain maker in the Ozarks.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see a light shower band overnight Friday.  But the main push of rain looks like late Saturday afternoon and evening.

I hoping for broad .25-.50″ rain totals with some areas getting close to .75″

Back in Cold Air

Sunday will be fairly mild but Monday and Tuesday will see a return to colder weather in the Ozarks.

One Model Output for Monday

There are some hints at parting snow shots overnight Sunday into Monday as a “wave” or small area of low pressure kinks the cold front to our east. One computer model showed this last night.  If it happens, areas east of Springfield have the best chance of being affected.