The Web Site and Blog of Ted Keller

Tropical Activity Picking Up

Tropical disturbances started early this year, going through the alphabet of named storms quickly.

We are now entering the peak of hurricane season statistically during a year where waters are warm above normal and wind shear pattern (a tropical storm killer) is relaxed enough to let storms form. And they are!

In fact, it is possible to have two hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico by early next week.

One storm, Laura, formed in the “MDR” or Main Development Region of the Atlantic Ocean. This area often lights up this time of year as waves come off of Africa travelling westward. The concern I see with this track is that it stays away from any disruption from the the island chains in a Caribbean and could make it to the open waters of the Gulf.

The second likely contender is in the southern Caribbean. It is not named yet but would be “Marco” unless another wave coming off Africa forms first which is unlikely. This potential storm looks like it will pass over the Yucatan Peninsula which make weaken it a bit.

What is interesting is the timing of these two systems puts them in the Gulf of Mexico at roughly the same time.

Note that projections of tropical development can and do change!

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