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Severe Weather Today 7/11/20: UPDATE - Weather or Not
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The Web Site and Blog of Ted Keller

Severe Weather Today 7/11/20: UPDATE

3:00 p.m.

A severe thunderstorm watch will be posted for most of southwest Missouri.

UPDATE 12:00 p.m.

The area I’m watching for storm development is eastern Kansas. A few storms have already fired near the Nebraska border. These will continue to develop and/or slide southeast during the day.

The air over eastern Kansas is very unstable. The shear needed for supercell thunderstorms is more than adequate.

At least a few of these severe storms will show up in western Missouri by late afternoon and early evening. Additional storms will probably develop in Missouri too and will affect areas more to the east.

Storm motion is from the northwest or even north today. Keep this in mind when looking at radar or watching the sky.

Damaging winds and large hail are still the main threat with these storms. A few tornadoes would be possible in the strongest storms, especially when they first develop, and with any storms which can find a boundary left behind by previous storms.

SPC outlooks remain the same for the Ozarks as of this writing.

ORIGINAL POST

Computer models on Friday did a flip-flop on the thunderstorm forecast.

It is typical in the current set-up to see bowing lines of storms form to the north of the Ozarks and then move in from that direction. Early yesterday, the models were indicating just that but I noticed through the day that each new run of the model removed that threat for early today.

Instead, the Ozarks are now in a broad area of severe thunderstorm risk today, most of which applies to late this afternoon and evening.

An upper level disturbance has pretty strong wind speed for this time of year and will sweep through the area tonight. “Wind shear” will aid in organized storm development.

I think the primary threat will be late afternoon and into the evening hours. Damaging winds and large hail are both possible and initially, even a tornado or two would be possible.

The SPC outlook for both all severe weather and tornadoes are shown below.

I will update this outlook around 11:30 a.m. today.

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