The Web Site and Blog of Ted Keller

Summer Heat Building

UPDATE 7/8/20

The ridge mentioned below continues to show signs of building into the central U.S. next week.

The hottest temperatures will be found near the center of such a feature.

Below is the “blend of models” temperature forecast for next week. Middle to upper 90’s seem to be in the bag as they say. A one-hundred degree day cannot be ruled out!

All long-term trends in temperature and precipitation are controlled by the average flow of jet stream winds thousands of feet above the ground.

During summer, a pattern that develops often has those jet stream winds flowing around a center of warmer air aloft, often referred to as an upper level ridge of high pressure.

All heat waves are connected to this feature.

Over the last few days in the Ozarks, typical summer heat as established itself, tempered by either travelling thunderstorm lines or random afternoon thunderstorm development. These are here because of a very weak disturbance at the jet stream level which is preventing a full, summer-like ridge to develop.

As we progress through the upcoming week, a ridge will establish itself in the central to southwestern U.S. This doesn’t put the Ozarks at the center of the heat but it will mean temperatures in the nineties will be pretty common.

There are some signs this ridge may center itself over the Ozarks by next weekend and into the following week. It’s a ways out but if it does shift, temperatures near 100 would not be out of the question.

Jet Stream Flow Forecast Monday
Jet Stream Flow Forecast Saturday 7/11

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