The Web Site and Blog of Ted Keller

Tropical System Christobal

UPDATE 6/7/2020

Flash Flood Watch posted for most of the Ozarks.

UPDATE 6/6/2020

Christobal is a tropical storm once again.

It’s main impact as it travels north over the next five days will be to leave a path of heavy rain.

For the Ozarks, it looks like 3-5 inches of rain from this storm mostly on Monday and Tuesday. The heaviest band of rain appears to be shifted just slightly to the east of Springfield but all of southern Missouri and northern Arkansas should be on the watch for this much rain.

UPDATE 6/4/2020

This storm looped back over Mexico and has weakened today.

However, there is strong agreement that Christobal will head due north into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Winds are forecast to stay below hurricane strength but systems like this will leave their rainfall mark just the same.

It does appear more likely that a least a portion of the Ozarks will see a spike in rain from what is left of this storm early next week.

ORIGINAL POST

Tropical Storm Christobal formed in the far southern portion of the Gulf of Mexico this morning.

Computer model guidance shows it will stay in this portion of the gulf for a few days moving very slowly.

I think it will likely intensify rather quickly where it is provided most of the circulation stays over the water,

After that. much uncertainty exists with the final track and intensity of Christobal into the weekend.

The National Hurricane Center has it moving due north. I wouldn’t put a lot of faith in that projection.

The ensemble members of the Euro computer model still has a wide berth of possibilities on the track of Christobal. It will be something to watch over the next couple of days.

Will the Ozarks get rain from this system? It is possible but there is no way to know for sure this many days out.

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