UPDATE Tuesday 6/2
Tropical Storm Christobal has formed late this morning.
The developing tropical weather system in the extreme south of the Gulf of Mexico won’t be going much of anywhere for the next couple of days.
The radar image below shows a circulation offshore and in very warm waters. This should be enough for the development of a tropical storm very soon.
This storm should wobble around in the Bay of Campeche for a few days.
Most all computer models have this storm moving north by the weekend.
UPDATE Sunday 5/31
The “Euro” model runs ensembles meaning data is input with very slight adjustments and the model is run to see to what degree they all drift apart from each other.
Overnight, the ensembles show a general agreement on a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.
This simply means confidence is higher. This is not as of yet a useful forecast at all!
A meteorologist and forecaster is always scanning the future for trends and storms.
Part of my daily routine is to check the long-range models. The two primary models are called the GFS, which is an American product, and the ECMWF model, which is often nicknamed the “Euro” and is a joint European product.
The GFS likes to spin up hurricanes. While I take note of these, I also take them with a grain of salt.
One such storm has repeated shown up all of this week in the Gulf of Mexico for late next week and weekend on GFS projections. Now, the “Euro” is starting to hint at this as well.
Way too early to project an exact storm position or intensity. There does appear to be support for an area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche which is west of the Yucatan peninsula.
It is something to watch!