The Web Site and Blog of Ted Keller

Severe Weather Possible on Memorial Day: UPDATE

UPDATE 4:30

SPC added slight risk to western Missouri and northwest Arkansas.

UPDATE MONDAY 2:30

Current radar image (below) shows increasing numbers of thunderstorm clusters forming. These will continue to increase in coverage during the afternoon.

The best balance between unstable air and favorable overall shear is pretty much centered on Branson to Springfield to Bolivar line, 70 miles either side.

This area will see some isolated storms with damaging winds to 60 mph and hail to 1″

I don’t see a clear area for an isolated tornado but it’s not out of the question for any storm that can grab the best of instability and shear and also, maybe, find an outflow boundary?

Note that storms are moving from the south today!

UPDATE Monday

Today, like Sunday, storms will bubble up in the heat of the afternoon.

The difference today is they will be aided by a few disturbances moving northward in the jet stream flow. Also, pockets of more unstable air will form anywhere sunshine is allowed to persist into the afternoon. This means the ability for storms to maintain their structure longer (supercells) is slighter greater and highly dependent on small scale developments.

Hail and gusty winds can form from non-supercells of course like the hail reported in Nixa and southern Greene County yesterday

Also, a flash flood watch is in effect for a portion of the Ozarks.

HRRR Model Simulated Radar for 5 p.m. Monday

ORIGINAL POST

The overall pattern still features weak upper level winds and unstable air.

Generally, this spells more isolated severe weather chances. It also promotes slower-moving storms which can dump heavy rain.

On Memorial Day (Monday), an upper level disturbance over the Great Plains may boost the wind pattern enough to give developing storms a tad more structure.

The Ozarks is on the side of this feature which would see slightly better chances for organized storms and also for heavy rain potential.

In these types of patterns, what happens with storms the day or night before has a large impact on what develops next.

I’ll update with more developments

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