The Web Site and Blog of Ted Keller

Severe Weather Today 5/22/20

UPDATE 6:30 p.m.

The storms have tried a couple of times to form in the area indicated. The probability of development is down but not zero.

UPDATE 3:00 p.m.

Clearing is progressing in the Ozarks. Unstable air is returning to much of Oklahoma and Kansas and will spread east into most of the Ozarks by evening.

A maximum in wind speed at the jet stream level is moving northeast into our area which should lend support for at least a few thunderstorm supercells.

Line of cumulus is increasing parallel and north of I-44 in Oklahoma with a few cells noted northeast of Tulsa. It looks like this will continue to develop storms into the early evening with activity stretching into western Missouri by early evening.

UPDATE 11:00 a.m.

The line of storms is progressing through the Ozarks. There have been isolated hail reports and a fair amount of lightning with this line. It will continue to move east through the area.

A few isolated cells have also formed ahead of the line. These could produce large hail and gusty winds as well.

Skies should clear over the Ozarks by early afternoon allowing the air to become more unstable.

High resolution computer models still support the atmosphere recovering some instability and even indicate some stronger low level winds. If this pans out, more severe storms will regenerate in the Ozarks by late afternoon and early evening. Hail, high winds and even an isolated tornado would all be on the table.

ORIGINAL POST

After some morning rain and thunder, the overall pattern remains much the same.

The two question marks are: will storms along the bowing segment for storms become severe at any point as is rolls through the Ozarks this morning and what will happen in the wake of this activity?

Bowing Line: As this moves into the Ozarks today, the air will be unstable enough to support severe storms especially from Springfield and points west. This would be through roughly noon today.

Later Development: The models are still indicating more isolated storms and supercells developing in the wake of this thunderstorm line.

One area seems to be northwest Arkansas and extreme southern Missouri in the early afternoon. Another looks possible in western Missouri by early evening.

Another update will be posted by 11 a.m. this morning.

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