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Severe Weather Chances 5/14/20: UPDATE

UPDATE 5/14 9:00 a.m.

A warmer day today with closer to normal humidity will make the air unstable over the Ozarks this afternoon.

There may be a few isolated cells popping up from around 2 p.m. and into the early evening.

As discussed below, the overall winds through a depth of the atmosphere are weak and on the edge of what be needed to support a “supercell” storm. Supercells have high probabilities of severe weather attached to them . However, more ordinary storms can produce brief bouts of a severe weather as well.

Overnight, a band of storms is expected to form to the northwest. It will sag south into the Ozarks overnight. The main threat with this line would be strong winds.

The SPC did expand their broad-brush slight risk area to cover most all of southwest Missouri to today and through 7 a.m. tomorrow.

Simulated Radar Forecast (HRRR) for 5 p.m. Today

UPDATE 5/13

Not much change to overall forecast.

Activity would form over Kansas and Oklahoma and move into the Ozarks late Thursday evening and night.

HRRR Forecast of Simulated Radar 11 pm Thursday

ORIGINAL POST

A portion of the Ozarks has a threat from severe thunderstorms on Thursday.

A weak disturbance will be riding into the Ozarks while a stronger, somewhat detached system moves through the northern U.S. .

Generally, the weak jet stream winds connected with our disturbance will make holding supercells together difficult over much of the area. Areas north of Springfield will have slightly better winds.

Also, travelling areas of showers and storms will have an effect on what might happen to the next round.

The best unstable air looks to be in a band from Oklahoma northeast into Kansas and western Missouri by late Thursday.

The outlook for severe storms reflects that development.

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