UPDATE Thursday 5/14
Friday the 15th will be interesting for severe weather as much of the possibility will be wrapped up in what happens to the forecast squall line dropping in from the north overnight tonight.
UPDATE Sunday 5/10
Looking long range computer models this morning, the possibility of severe weather still exists during this period. I would definitely extend this by one day so I’m talking about Thursday through Saturday.
Unstable air will be in place. Dew points will return to richer, spring-like values.
One limiting factor would be the overall wind shear from the ground up to the jet stream level. Organized supercell thunderstorms like this shear value to be high. The wind fields forecast for this time frame are marginal but could easily be higher once we get closer to the days in question.
Defining a stand-out disturbance is also difficult.
One additional thing to watch: storms that form will be good rain-producers moving a bit slow which should boost rain totals this week. There seems to be a lot of travelling storm clusters during this time. As the SPC points out, these will also have an impact on how storms the next day evolve.
By the middle of next week, southerly winds will have the chance to blow in some higher dew points (moisture) to feed higher instability for severe storms. Now all that is left is the timing of disturbances coming out of the southwestern U.S.
This is a pattern reversal from the cool flow out of the northwest which we are under now and will be through the weekend.
While unstable air will come back, it remains unclear how disturbances rolling out over the Great Plains will time out.
CIPS guidance shows the highest probabilities for Missouri on Thursday and Friday. However, there may be a need to look at Saturday the 16th as well.