Looking at the morning data, I would make two adjustments to the severe weather portion of this forecast. First, the possibility of isolated supercells across extreme southwest Missouri is higher than it was yesterday. This might up the tornado probabilities a bit. One would want to watch radar trends between say 3 and 6 p.m.
Second, the overall timing of the eventual squall line looks earlier now (for Springfield). I’d put that now somewhere between 6 and 9 pm
Remember also that widespread rain totals of 2-3 inches will occur across all of southwest Missouri today and tonight and a Flash Flood Watch is in effect.
A fairly potent storm is developing this evening, slated to affect the Ozarks in force on Friday with lasting effects into Saturday.
Winds will remain steady out of the south through Friday evening, continuing to pump higher moisture values into the Ozarks. Dew points should get close to sixty by late Friday afternoon.
The spring side to this storm appears very typical for the Ozarks. Severe storms are possible beginning late Friday afternoon and into Friday evening. What forecasters always watch for in these winter severe situations is the possibility of lone supercell storms and then the details of circulations which inevitably form within the eventual squall line. The hours of most concern are from 6 pm to Midnight Friday evening.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has southern Missouri in a slight risk for severe storms tomorrow. The main threat will be damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
Then the winter side kicks in Saturday. It looks like up to an inch of snow will fall around the Springfield area with totals of several inches (1-3) to the northwest of Springfield. A mix of winter precipitation is possible Saturday afternoon but confidence is low on placement of precipitation type lines at two days out.