Jan 292013
 

Severe Threat Today

Here’s the latest on the severe weather potential today.

This morning, some storms can be seen firing over western Missouri.  These are not the main event but could pose a slight risk of some damaging winds and hail over the next few hours.

Later today, a fast-moving squall line should move in from Oklahoma and Kansas.  I would put the main line of storms in Springfield around 1 p.m. and it will be organizing as it moves through.

It’s a typical winter severe situation for the Ozarks in that the instability will be on the weak side while the overall jet stream wind shear is off the charts.  This will support a squall line capable of straight-line wind damage. This threat will be enhanced in surging/bowing segments of the line of storms.  These are also areas which will need to be watched for isolated tornado potential.

Tornado Probability within 25 Miles of a Point

I don’t see a strong signal for isolated storm development ahead of the main line but these types of storms need to be watched for as they have a higher severe weather incidence connected to them.

The line of storms will progress eastward quickly, entering areas of southern Missouri and northern Arkansas by around dinner-time.

The cold front itself will keep scattered showers and storms in play behind the line but I don’t think these pose a large severe threat at this time.

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