An intense low pressure system will be developing and moving from Kansas into western Missouri tonight. A few thunderstorms will be developing this evening and the issue is how many might be severe.
Overall, scattered storms will transition quickly to a line of storms later this evening across most of the Ozarks. Wind shear is very favorable for stronger storms capable of supporting strong surface wind gusts with the heavier storms. This set-up might support an isolated tornado.
One overall negative factor is the low instability. Having stated this, the highest instability will set up later this evening in northwest Arkansas, extreme southern Missouri and then north central Arkansas. Low level instability with a very high humidity surface air mass will likely make the most of any long-lived updraft in a storm.
The SPC outlooks looks reasonable with regard to severe weather.
I’ll be watching this area carefully tonight. Remember, wind chills in the teens and snow flurries flying in about 12 hours! That’s why I love the weather!