Stouct Cap in Blue, Weaker Near Dry Line
The 12z model runs from this Tuesday morning are still showing a chance for severe storms on Thursday over the Great Plains but we have issues.
It’s a lead shortwave set-up coming out of the long-wave trough out west. Adequate but not great overall shear. A cap that will quicky snuff out any storms that do develop by just after sunset. Modified continental polar air trying to ride north-northwestward out ahead of the short-wave.
Things to watch, even as late as Thursday morning: true cap strength, extent of humidity return, forcing and position along the dry line.
As of this writing, a so-so opportunity. We might get away with a drive over to around Dodge City if the morning models are telling the truth. Actually, the NAM and the SREF are hinting at possibilties even more eastward. The 18Z NAM more west now.
Time will tell!