The forecast rains came and with a slow-moving system, more is on the way!
The radar rain estimator seems to line up pretty well with “ground truth” so far with the heaviest rain totals in extreme southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas and then west in Oklahoma and Kansas.
Joplin set a new daily rainfall record at 3.06″ for Monday the 19th. Portions of Newton and McDonald Counties picked up about 4-5 inches. The Oklahoma Mesonet reports that Jay has accumulated 5.41″ with Pryor coming in at 6.01″.
The pattern still features a slow-moving upper level low to our southwest, high and deep levels of humidity in the atmosphere and storms which will “train” or move over the same area again. This will continue to encourage heavy and flooding rains.
Enclosed is a sort of a super weather satellite image which has the ability to not only show clouds but also humidity in the middle and upper atmosphere. Dark or red colors would indicate dry air (there really isn’t any!) Clouds show up as bright white. The milky color in-between is high humidity levels.
Between now and Thursday, an additional 2-4″ of rain will fall in the Ozarks. Perhaps as much as 4-5″ will fall over northcentral Arkansas.
Each new day will find the rain area shifting slowly east. So if you feel left out of the spring rain picture east of Springfield, give it a few days!
The latest rainfall forecast from the Hydrological Prediction Center (HPC) can be found here.